Super Bowl 51 Prop Bet Game
So literally, I’ve had more people ask if I’m going to publish the Prop Bet Game this season than I had dates in high school. Not that I was Arthur Fonzarelli or anything back in my days as a Minnetonka Skipper, but the number of ladies I escorted to a crappy dinner at Perkins and a movie was higher than zero. I may even be able to count it on one full hand. Enough about me, let’s talk about the Super Bowl.
Attached is my Super Bowl Prop Bet Game. Click here to view it. The rules are simple.
- Print this out for every person who wants to play. It’s two pages full of deep and meaningful questions (30 to be exact) that I tried to make as even as possible with odds-based scoring.
- Questions range from the result of the coin flip, to who scores the first touchdown, to commercials, to the halftime show, all the way down to who wins the actual game.
- Each person fills out their predictions prior to the National Anthem taking place. I like to have everyone fill it out prior to the TV being tuned in to the game yet, but I get it. If you have late-comers to your party, they can still play, but they score a zero for every question that has been decided as of yet.
- For every correct answer you get the points in parenthesis next to your answer. For every wrong answer you get zero. Nothing! You lose! Good day!
- Tally up the scores in the little box on the right, add it up, see who wins.
This is actually my seventh year of doing the Super Bowl Prop Bet Game, the first was the Steelers vs. Packers in Super Bowl XLV (45 for those of us non-Romans). In that game you would have received a stellar 22 points if Isaac Redman scored the game’s first touchdown and a cool 16 points if a punt would have hit the scoreboard in Jerry World.
Some of my other favorite prop bet questions on this list over the past seven years:
Super Bowl 46: Which total will be higher: Chad Ochocinco receiving yards (10) or Patriots total points (3)?
Super Bowl 47: Will Alecia Keys be booed during her rendition of the National Anthem? Yes (15), No (3)
Super Bowl 48: Will the phrase “Omaha” be said in the first five minutes of play? Yes (7), No (4) AND Will any member of the Red Hot Chili Peppers be shirtless during their performance? Yes (3), No (7)
Super Bowl 49: Will the announcers mention “deflated balls” in the first five minutes of the game? Yes (5), No (10). We’re still living that one out!
Super Bowl 50: According to @QuakesToday will there be an earthquake of 2.0 or greater within 50 miles of the stadium during the game? Yes (30), No (5) AND Will Left Shark make an appearance during the halftime show? Yes (75), No (5).
This year we’re back in Texas again, this time in Houston. Yes, I’ve recycled a few of the questions from last year, but as in every year I tweak the point values based on real Vegas odds, or just how I’m handicapping these. Here’s the thought process on some of these, which you may or may not want to share with people at your party (hey, they can do their research too).
Q1: How long will it take Luke Bryan to sing the National Anthem (first note to “brave”)?
- According to OddsShark.com the average time to sing the last 10 Super Bowl National Anthems was 1:57.
- I saw two over-under combinations on this from different sites, one at 2:07, one at 2:15. I went with the latter (actually 2:15 and a half) because normally singers do hit the over in the Super Bowl.
- But there’s also some footage of Bryan singing at the initial concert of US Bank Stadium this past summer, where he was in the two and a half minute range (and that was loooooong). Now I don’t think the NFL will want him taking too much time with this, so they’ll probably target him around the 2:10 mark, so let’s see how this goes. I will be timing it on my trusty iPhone stopwatch.
Q2 and Q4: Coin flip related…
- Obviously it’s not easy to predict a coin flip. Although in 50 Super Bowls we’ve seen tails jump out to a slim lead, 26-24, including three consecutive tails over the last three seasons.
- 82% of NFL teams defer on the opening kickoff now.
- The Patriots have called heads every time for the past two seasons.For a period of time in 2015, they had won 19 of 25 coin tosses, but it’s not info that’s always readily available.
- Since 2008, the Patriots have won the toss and taken the ball only 3 times. They’ve lost each of those games, including last year’s AFC Championship game against Denver.
Q5: Which football-related person will be shown first on camera after the opening kickoff?
- All of these fellas will be in attendance for sure. But will FOX pan to Goodell first after kickoff, seeing as how it’s the first time all season that he’s seen the Pats play in person? Or will they focus on the coaches and/or owners.
Q6: Which random celebrity will be shown on camera first (after kickoff)?
- Obviously Vick and Luda represent the ATL, and you can’t tell any animals to “say hello to your mother for me” without thinking about Boston’s native son Mark Wahlberg.
- Warren Moon is probably the greatest player in the history of Houston football and is known to be one of many in attendance.
- The dark horse here is Guy Fieri, and he’s a horse that’s full of flavor. He’s going to be hosting some sort of Saturday party locally in Houston, so he should also be in attendance.
Q8: Will there be a score in the first 5 minutes of the game?
- It’s happened 20 times in 50 Super Bowls, so you’re actually getting much better odds playing the “Yes” answer (10) over “No” (5).
Q10: Will the word “DeflateGate” be used in the first quarter of the game?
- Joe Buck never fears addressing the elephant in the room, but will he bring up DeflateGate in the first quarter? Too soon? It was two years ago!
Q14: What color hooded sweatshirt will Bill Belichick wear on the sidelines?
- That one is recycled from a previous year and it might be common knowledge prior to the game (if your group is watching the pregame festivities). Which means that you may want to make sure that everyone answers this question almost immediately before gaining an edge.
Q18: AFTER THE SECOND SCORE of the game, the first FOOD/RESTAURANT commercial will be for…
- There’s a lot of options here, and it is nearly impossible to handicap. However, I am certain that each of the following should be displaying a Super Bowl ad. I’m probably picking avacados, because I adore the avacado.
Q22: Will Lady Gaga have a wardrobe malfunction? (Must expose intimate part of body)
- Do you think we see Lady Gaga’s nipples at halftime? That’s a million dollar question. Or at least a possible 75 point question.
Q28: What color Gatorade will be dumped on the winning coach?
- I don’t think I’ve ever got this one right, in seven years. I need some deep equipment manager intel here. If you know the waterboy for the Falcons or Patriots, can you arrange a Twitter meeting for me?
I had a lot of people enjoy this game last year as many printed off this booger and used it at their own Super Bowl party. Now I know that this is all for fun, but you could utilize this for a small monetary prize at your party (we play for a dollar). As a fair reminder, LeagueSafe does NOT collect funds for Super Bowl pools, so while we’re flattered that you think of us, use an empty beer mug with your friends.
I try to tweet out the results of the game as they happen on my Twitter page (@ExplosiveOutput), which, if you’re playing, please give me a follow and boost my fragile-still-in-high-school ego.
Thanks to those of you who did bug me (and also tweeted Charch… and LeagueSafe) about this in the last couple of weeks. I like it that you like it. Don’t worry I will post this every year in some capacity.
Happy Super Bowl.
Update: A friend of the Fantasy Football Weekly show, @EricBaba7 has posted a sweet Google Doc that you can use to digitize this whole thing, complete with a fancy scoreboard. You can find that by clicking here. Thanks Eric!